Results of a new national poll conducted by Ipsos/Reuters were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out between September 22 and September 26. The sample size was 1041 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 50.6% was gained by Clinton in the Ipsos/Reuters poll on August 30, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.