Latest Clout Research (R) poll in Oregon: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat
Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13 with 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the PollyVote is 5.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.