KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 57.0% of respondents are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11 among 678 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often include large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 61.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.