Results of a new poll administered by JMC Analytics were spread. The poll asked participants from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who replied, 35.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 among 905 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. In the latest JMC Analytics poll on May 6 Clinton obtained only 40.9%, while Trump obtained 59.1%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.