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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Issues and Leaders model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.7%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.4%. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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