Results of a new poll conducted by LorasLoras were spread. The poll asked participants from Iowa for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
LorasLoras poll results
The results show that both candidates can draw on the same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from September 20 to September 22, among a random sample of 491 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Iowa sees Clinton at 47.2% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.8 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.