FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 27 with 1956 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. In the latest FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll on September 18 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Michigan. This value is 0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.