Results of a new poll conducted by FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell were spread. The poll asked participants from Michigan for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 6 to September 7 with 940 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump. In the latest FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll on September 18 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.8%. This value is 0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.