UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
The results show that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump have equal levels of support, each with 48.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 21 to September 27 via Internet. A total of 1239 likely voters responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-2.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on August 30 Clinton obtained 51.6%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.8% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.8 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% and Trump 47.7% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.