Clinton tied with Trump in new Bloomberg/Selzer poll
By Bloomberg/Selzer published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Bloomberg/Selzer poll results
The results show that real estate developer Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are on equal standing, each with 46.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted via phone from September 21 to September 24, among a random sample of 1002 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.3%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% and Trump 47.6% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.
