Bloomberg released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
The results show that former First Lady Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump are on equal standing, each with 46.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 21 to September 24 among 1002 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. For comparison: Only 46.8% was obtained by Clinton in the Bloomberg poll on August 8, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.3%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% and Trump 47.6% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.