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Clinton tied with Trump in latest Bloomberg poll

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Bloomberg released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Bloomberg poll results
46

Clinton

46

Trump

The results show that former First Lady Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump are on equal standing, each with 46.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted from September 21 to September 24 among 1002 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. For comparison: Only 46.8% was obtained by Clinton in the Bloomberg poll on August 8, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.3%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% and Trump 47.6% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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