Goucher CollegeGoucher College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who answered the question, 58.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the combined PollyVote is 5.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.