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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.7% for Clinton, and 49.3% for Trump. In comparison, on September 27 Trump was still predicted to obtain 49.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they often include large biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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