Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.5 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, Polly's prediction is 7.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.