ElonElon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
ElonElon poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 16 with 644 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 50.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the ElonElon poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.