NY Times/Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NY Times/Siena poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 16 to September 19. A total of 782 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 49.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. Relative to her numbers in the NY Times/Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.