Results of a new poll carried out by FOX News were distributed. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX News poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20, among a random sample of 734 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.5 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.2%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX News poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.