Results of a new poll administered by High PointHigh Point were announced. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
High PointHigh Point poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 22 among 404 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 49.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the High PointHigh Point poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.