North Carolina: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will end up with 53.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 53.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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