PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, the two candidates can draw on the same level of support, each with 47.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20 among 1024 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share. In the most recent PPP (D) poll on March 20 Clinton obtained 51.2%, while Trump obtained only 48.8%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 49.5% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.5 percentage points better in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.1% and Trump 50.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.9 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.