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North Carolina: Clinton tied with Trump in new Civitas (R) poll

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Civitas (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Civitas (R) poll results
42

Clinton

42

Trump

According to the results, businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted between September 11 and September 12. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 49.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.2% and Trump 50.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.8 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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