Civitas (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted between September 11 and September 12. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 49.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.2% and Trump 50.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.8 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.