Results of a new poll carried out by PPP (D) were spread. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump can draw on the same level of support, each with 47.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20. A total of 1024 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. On March 20 Clinton received 51.2% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump received only 48.8%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 49.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.2% and Trump 50.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.8 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.