Economist published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Economist poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 19. A total of 936 participants responded. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.5%. Relative to numbers in the Economist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.