Results of a new poll carried out by OpinionWorks were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30, among a random sample of 754 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.2%. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.