Maryland: New Goucher College*Goucher College* poll shows Trump trailing by 33 points
By Goucher CollegeGoucher College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote is 5.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.
