JMC Analytics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 36.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 52.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 5 to May 6. A total of 624 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 40.9% for Clinton and 59.1% for Trump. In the most recent JMC Analytics poll on September 24 Clinton obtained 43.8%, while Trump obtained only 56.3%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.