NY Times/Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
NY Times/Siena poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% said that they would cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 16 to September 19. A total of 782 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 49.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the NY Times/Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 49.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote is 2.0 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.