Results of a new poll carried out by Gravis were circulated. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 23 to September 23 among 694 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they can include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.9%. Relative to her numbers in the Gravis poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.