Kentucky: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 61.2% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.