Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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