The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.