LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 20 to September 26. A total of 2726 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. In the latest LA Times poll on September 24 Clinton received only 47.7%, while Trump received 52.3%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 48.6%. This value is 3.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the LA Times poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.7% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.0 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.