Results of a new poll conducted by KABC/SurveyUSA were released. The poll asked interviewees from California for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 57.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 8 and September 11. The sample size was 678 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.8 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they may include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 61.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 60.4% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.