In the latest update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will collect 52.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.7% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.4%.
Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.6% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
The prediction markets forecast of 53.6% for the Democrats is notably low compared to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 52.4% for Barack Obama.