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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


In the latest update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will collect 52.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.7% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.4%.

Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.6% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

The prediction markets forecast of 53.6% for the Democrats is notably low compared to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 52.4% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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