Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead
The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, don't be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.