Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead

The Big-issue model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on September 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 49.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. Compared to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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