The Big-issue model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on September 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 49.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. Compared to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.