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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.4%. In comparison, on September 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 49.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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