538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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