The Trial-heat model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.3%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Trial-heat model.
The Trial-heat model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.