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Trial-heat model shows Clinton in the lead


The Trial-heat model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.3%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Trial-heat model.

The Trial-heat model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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