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Time-for-change model: Trump is in the lead


The Time-for-change model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points lower.

The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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