NBC/SurveyMonkey published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from September 19 to September 25 among 13598 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-0.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. In the most recent NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on August 28 Clinton obtained only 53.3%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.3%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Clinton's poll average is 2.4 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.