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Steady lead for Clinton in new NBC/SurveyMonkey poll

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NBC/SurveyMonkey published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
51

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via Internet from September 19 to September 25 among 13598 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-0.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. In the most recent NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on August 28 Clinton obtained only 53.3%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.3%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Clinton's poll average is 2.4 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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