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Primary model: Trump is in the lead

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The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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