Results of a new poll administered by Monmouth were released. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have often gained similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 11 to September 13, among a random sample of 406 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Trump at 51.2% of the two-party vote. The values are thus identical to the average results of other polls in Nevada. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.