Results of a new national poll conducted by Economist were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Economist poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 18 to September 19, among a random sample of 936 participants. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the Economist poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 1.8 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.