Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 11 and September 13. The sample size was 406 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 51.2%. The values are thus identical to the average results of other polls in Nevada. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.5 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.