Results of a new poll administered by NBC-WSJ-Marist were released. The poll asked interviewees from Nevada for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Nevada, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 6 and September 8. The sample size was 627 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 48.9%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.