Nevada: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest KTNV/Rasmussen poll
By KTNV/Rasmussen published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular interest.
KTNV/Rasmussen poll results
According to the results, 39.0% of participants will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 16 to September 18 among 800 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.2% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the KTNV/Rasmussen poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.
