KTNV/Rasmussen released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have often gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
KTNV/Rasmussen poll results
The results show that 39.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 16 to September 18 with 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Trump at 51.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KTNV/Rasmussen poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.