Results of a new poll administered by FOX News were published. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Nevada, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
FOX News poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 18 and September 20. The sample size was 704 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Trump at 51.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX News poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.