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Minnesota: Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll

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KSTP/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
42

Clinton

45

Trump

According to the results, 42.0% of interviewees will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 29 to November 2 with 516 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 45.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, Polly's prediction is 6.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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