KSTP/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of interviewees will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 29 to November 2 with 516 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 45.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, Polly's prediction is 6.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.